Mémoire d'actuariat

Tarification et impacts des options sur un produit de complémentaire santé
Auteur(s) AZRIA E.
Société GGVIE
Année 2016
Confidentiel jusqu'au 22/01/2018

The national intersectoral agreement (Accord National Interprofessionnel in french) has been settled in January 2013 and come into force in January 2016. This agreement is a major change for insurers in France as it makes mandatory the complementary health coverage for every employee in every firm. Thus, the market will move from individual hedge to collective contracts. Premiums are going to be paid by employers (at least 50 %) and employee. Groupama, a major insurer in France, settled a new product called Essentielle. This offer will allow employees to upgrade the contract implemented by their employer, by adding additional guarantees, called options. This thesis analyses how additional guarantees will impact the price and what is the good price for the company. A part of this study also analyses the population that will potentially subscribe to those additional guarantees. This thesis is divided in four sections. First, we expose the context of the health insurance market in France and its specificities, as well as the economic, political and social framework in which this study take place. Then we present data used for this study. Afterwards, using several prediction models, such as logistic regression or bagging, we study the criteria that leads to choosing an option. To finish, by analyzing the results of a linear regression and a generalized linear model on the amount settled by Groupama, we will be able to build homogeny groups of people and therefore determine the price of the option depending on different variables.